Ten names under active coverage. Two fully initiated with published theses. Eight on watch.
MercadoLibre runs three interlocking businesses: Marketplace (218M users across 18 countries), Mercado Pago (78M MAUs, $18.8B AUM, a full digital bank), and Mercado Envios (handles 95% of packages, delivers roughly three times faster than competitors in São Paulo). Mercado Ads grew 67% YoY in Q4 2025. New CEO Ariel Szarfsztejn took over on January 1, 2026.
LatAm e-commerce penetration is still below 15%, compared to 20-25% in the US. At 2.9x trailing P/S, the market is pricing in permanent damage that history does not support. Mercado Pago at 78M users is on track to become the primary banking relationship for tens of millions of people who never had one. MELI also committed $3.4B to Argentina in 2026, up 30% from 2025.
Shopee has a proven track record of taking market share through zero-margin aggression. MELI cut free-shipping thresholds in response, which compresses margins. The key question is whether high-value buyers are staying or migrating. JPMorgan downgraded to Neutral on March 12, citing competition and margin pressure.
AI shopping agents now compare prices across the entire web before a user opens any app. AI-referred retail traffic grew 800% YoY on Black Friday 2025. McKinsey projects $3-5T in redirected global retail spend by 2030. One partial offset: marketplace retailers appear in AI results 24% more often than single-vendor sites.
Brazil accounts for 55% of revenue, so BRL/USD moves matter. The $12.5B credit book is growing at 90% YoY, which looks fine until a macro shock hits delinquency rates. The new CEO is unproven.
| Year | Revenue | Growth | Op. Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | $14.47B | +37% | ~12% |
| FY2024 | $20.78B | +43% | ~13.5% |
| FY2025 | $28.89B | +39% | ~10.1% |
Margin compression here is deliberate and historically temporary. At 2.9x sales, the market is pricing in deterioration the fundamentals do not support. Shopee and agentic AI are genuine risks, which is exactly why this is a disciplined position rather than an uncritical one. BTIG maintains Buy, PT $2,400.
Nu is the largest private financial institution in Brazil by customer count, covering 62% of the adult population. It operates at $0.80 per customer per month — compared to $15–$20 for legacy banks. Net income grew 45% on 27% revenue growth in FY2025. The 24x trailing P/E on 45% NI growth implies the market expects growth to disappear imminently. The ARPU expansion, the Mexico trajectory, and the product roadmap suggest it does not.
BRL concentration: 82% of revenue in Brazil, so currency moves hit USD-reported earnings. Mexico NPL risk: thinner credit bureau data than Brazil. US bank charter ambition adds regulatory complexity.
The EM discount is partially rational — but irrational in magnitude when applied to a business with 33% ROE and 45% net income growth. Base PT $18. Bull case $26. Bear PT $9.
India's credit-to-GDP ratio remains among the lowest in major economies. Manufacturing FDI reached $19B in FY2025, and the PLI scheme is reshaping India into a global manufacturing hub, creating fresh demand for working capital, equipment financing, and payroll banking. Foreign ownership of Indian equities hit a 15-year low in 2025, setting up a potential re-rating when global EM flows normalise.
INR/USD currency drag is a real headwind for USD-denominated investors. Rate cuts expected through 2026 will compress net interest margins. The retail book grew only 6.9% YoY, a deceleration worth monitoring.
The cleanest vehicle to own India's 20-year financial deepening story. Balance sheet in good shape, management team proven, credit cycle still early. Any broad India selloff is an opportunity to add.
Samsung began mass production and commercial shipments of HBM4 in early 2026. Management confirmed that customer feedback is positive: "Samsung is back." The HBM market is projected to grow from $35B in 2025 to $100B by 2028. Samsung's share is recovering from 16% toward 35% in 2026 per KB Securities. DRAM prices are expected to rise 40-50% through H1 2026 as AI demand outpaces supply.
SK Hynix beat Samsung in annual profit for the first time in 2025 and still holds 57% HBM revenue share. The 2nm foundry execution against TSMC remains uncertain. Consumer electronics margins face pressure from higher AI chip costs.
The catch-up thesis is credible and HBM4 momentum is real. The main risk is SK Hynix keeps its lead longer than expected. We hold with discipline rather than full conviction.
Argentina's credit penetration rising from 11% to 30% of GDP would require the banking sector's loan book to roughly triple in real terms. Book values could grow 5x. GGAL, as the dominant private bank post the HSBC acquisition, captures disproportionate share. A Carrhae Capital $8.7M institutional position was disclosed on March 18, a sign of renewed confidence from sophisticated money.
Argentina has defaulted nine times in its history. A 2027 election reversal could unwind the entire reform programme within 12 months. Short interest rose 16.6% in February 2026. The 52-week range of $26-$74 tells you everything about the volatility regime. This is not a core position. It is a calculated, small, asymmetric bet.
Reform success produces extraordinary upside. Failure produces near-zero. Size discipline is the whole thesis here. We carry a small, defined position and watch the 2027 election calendar closely.
Al Rajhi is compounding net income at 26% YoY with a 23.5% ROE and a cost-to-income ratio below 24.5%. Most Western EM funds are structurally underweight Islamic banking, which means the market is less efficiently analysed. Saudi GDP is expected to grow 4.5% in 2026. Vision 2030 is a trillion-dollar economic transformation requiring massive domestic financial infrastructure throughout. Structural growth combined with under-ownership and operational excellence is a rare combination.
Saudi macro is ultimately linked to oil. Two rate cuts are anticipated in H2 2026, which will pressure net financing margins. Access via the Tadawul creates friction for Western investors using ADR structures.
A quality compounder that Western investors systematically overlook. That structural under-ownership creates a pricing gap that patient capital can exploit.
Mobile network operators white-label SpaceMobile at roughly a 50/50 revenue share. There is no customer acquisition cost, no billing infrastructure needed, and near-zero marginal cost per additional user once the constellation is in place. The $1.2B committed backlog from Verizon, AT&T, and stc is real money. Defense applications add a second revenue stream from the same hardware.
A $26B market cap on $70.9M in revenue is a 367x P/S multiple. Scaling to 45-60 satellites in 2026 requires a launch cadence the company has never demonstrated. ASTS launched one satellite in all of 2025. BlueBird 7 is encapsulated at Cape Canaveral awaiting launch. Our preferred entry point is $50-60 with at least 20 satellites in orbit and commercial service activation confirmed.
Starlink is building direct-to-cell capability with thousands of satellites already in orbit and a profitable launch business subsidising everything. Dilution from capital raises is unavoidable at current loss levels.
| Year | Revenue | Scenario | P/S at $26B |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | $70.9M | Hardware and milestones | 367x |
| FY2026 | ~$200-400M | Initial commercial | ~65-130x |
| FY2027 | ~$830M | Constellation partial | ~31x |
| FY2028 | ~$2.54B | Scale commercial | ~10x |
Technology validated, model elegant, partner roster serious. At $90 you are paying for perfect execution in a business that has not demonstrated it yet. Entry at $50-60 with 20+ satellites in orbit dramatically improves the risk/reward profile.
Electron proves Rocket Lab can build, launch, and operate reliably at scale. Neutron, targeting its first launch in Q4 2026, would open the medium launch market currently owned by SpaceX's Falcon 9. The $816M SDA satellite contract confirms Rocket Lab is a prime contractor, not just a launch vendor. The new $190M HASTE hypersonic contract pushes total backlog above $2B. If Neutron flies successfully, the total addressable market roughly doubles.
Rocket Lab announced a $1B equity offering in late March 2026, causing an initial 10-11% drop before partial recovery. Dilutive in the short term, but the capital funds Neutron development and space power ambitions. Clear Street initiated coverage at Buy immediately following the offering.
SpaceX competes in every segment Rocket Lab operates in and has vastly more capital. The first-stage tank test failure pushed Neutron from Q1 to Q4 2026. Any further slip is a meaningful downside event at current valuation levels.
Our highest-conviction Futurist Bet. The business today generates real revenue, real backlog, and expanding margins. Neutron is the call option sitting on top of an already-valuable company. We own this with conviction and add on launch-related dips.
The DOE signed its Nuclear Safety Design Agreement for the Aurora powerhouse at Idaho National Laboratory on March 18, 2026, formalising the construction pathway. Oklo's Atomic Alchemy subsidiary also received its first NRC-issued license for isotope handling, which is the company's first revenue-generating authorisation. Pre-construction and site characterisation have begun for the Meta 1.2 GW campus in Ohio. Customer pipeline grew 200% to 2.1 GW since listing.
Zero revenue. Net loss of $105M for 2025. NuScale and BWX are ahead on commercialisation, with NuScale already generating $8.2M per quarter from consulting. The regulatory path, while accelerating, is still complex. At a $10B market cap with no revenue, this is an entirely forward-looking bet.
The DOE construction agreement and first NRC license are genuine milestones, not press releases. Still strictly a small, defined position, but the regulatory roadmap is moving faster than skeptics expected.
Intuitive Machines is building the infrastructure of the commercial Moon economy before the commercial Moon economy exists, with NASA and DoD paying for it along the way. The NSNS contract alone, worth up to $4.82B through 2034, provides a durable revenue floor. Today's $180.4M CLPS-5 contract is the fifth such award and the first requiring the larger Nova-D lander, validating the company's expanding capabilities. The LTV contract, potentially worth up to $4.6B, is expected in Q1-Q2 2026.
Two consecutive hard Moon landings raise real questions about landing system reliability. The 2026 guidance of $900M-$1B is a fourfold jump that requires the $800M Lanteris acquisition to integrate cleanly while multiple large government contracts convert on time. Any single programme cancellation could materially damage the revenue profile.
Today's NASA contract validates ongoing mission confidence. The NSNS anchor, the Lanteris acquisition, and the growing contract pipeline create a credible path to a diversified space infrastructure business. IM-3's lunar landing is the single most important near-term re-rating event. A clean landing restores the reliability narrative.
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